Running to the Right
Carlos Hyde began his tenure as the 49ers undisputed lead runningback by rushing for 168 yards and 2 touchdowns. After enduring what appeared to be at the time the worst offseason in NFL history, the Tomsula-lead 49ers crushed the Vikings 20-3.
While Willis, Harbaugh, and Borland were the most-cited 49er losses of the offseason, insiders and many fans also fretted about the losses of Pro Bowl guard Mike Iupati (left in free agency to Arizona) and the apparently-temporary retirement of right tackle Anthony Davis. This left Erik Pears at right tackle, and Jordan Devey at right guard, two lineman regarded as some of the worst in football.
Which leads to the question, can a run-first offense function if it can only run to the left? Would Pears and Devey be so terrible as to end the season before it started?
Obviously they weren’t, but even I was surprised by what I found. After watching tape of every designed 49ers run to the right from Monday night, I found that they averaged 6.125 yards per attempt when running to the right. While the league doesn’t track which direction a rush was in, 6.1 yards per attempt would have been the best rushing offense in the league last year by a considerable margin. The Seahawks had the best rushing offense in 2014, and they only averaged 5.3 ypa.
Some context: I came to the 6.1 number not counting any plays that ended in penalties, and also not counting this rushing TD by Carlos Hyde, as the right side of the line fell apart so bad that he had to spin to the left. While the play was successful, it certainly had nothing to do with Pears or Devey.
To investigate further I removed another outlier, Hyde's 17-yard TD rush in the 4th quarter , to get a better sense of what the average play was without the big home-run hits. Even removing their best work on the night, running to the right still resulted in 4.5 yards per carry, which would have been tied for 5th last season for best rushing offense in the league.
This is not to praise Pears and Devey. Not only did they commit costly holding penalties late in drives, but the gains that Hyde did make when running to the right were due to him being a human bowling ball with tapdancers feet, not any excellence on their part.
This play is fairly representative of what went down Monday night. The play begins, and you can see that they are both immediately blown back. Without being able to set an edge, there is nowhere to go, and Hyde has to quickly cut and blow through people. Despite the play being a non-starter, Hyde still manages to gain 5 yards by falling forward.
Of course this is only week 1 in the NFL, where last season the 2-14 Tennessee Titans looked like contenders week 1, and the 8-8 49ers beat the 12-4 Cowboys 28-17. There needs to be at least two games for anything to be considered a trend instead of a random excellent performance. The Vikings may just be a terrible team. But based on the preseason expectations of “literally worst in the entire league,” the right side of the 49ers offensive line held up just fine. Carlos Hyde may not rush for 168 yards a week the whole season, but fans can look to continued success on the ground if Hyde can stay healthy.
Quick Hits for Sunday vs. the Steelers
It’s easy to look at the fact that Navarro Bowman and the 49ers held an extremely motivated Adrian Peterson, who claimed to be in the best shape of his life, to a minuscule 31 yards and assume that the 2011 run defense allowed 3 rushing touchdowns all year is back. While it’s definitely a good start, I would caution against too much excitement. People forget that Peterson didn’t play a single snap in the preseason, and most likely had limited practice reps—rust was certainly a factor for him. However, I do expect that DeAngelo Williams, who is starting during Le’Veon Bell’s 2-game suspension, will not run for 127 like he did against the Patriots.
Kaepernick did not complete many deep balls on Monday night, which is OK—he didn’t need to. But after their very public Gronk-related meltdown on defense, and Hyde’s prolific performance, the Steeler’s defense will most likely be focused on shutting down Vernon Davis, and the running game. Their porous defense should leave generous openings for Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin, and Bruce Ellington to really get involved if Kaepernick can deliver.
I think that despite the betting line being Steelers (-6), the 49ers are being overrated in this game. While they had an excellent team performance week 1, going into Pittsburgh against a healthy Big Ben and Antonio Brown is a tough game, for any team in the league. If the Steelers had Bell back, I would certainly pick the 49ers to lose. But the Steelers don’t have Bell, and without him they are 0-5 the last two seasons. I am picking the 49ers to continue that trend, and pull off a huge upset Sunday afternoon.